Economist
Oliver’s insights – Why have Australian living standards “fallen” and how do we fix it?
16 July
Key points Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments over the last five years have led to a slump in Australians’ living standards. But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2025-26 saw lots of noise but strong returns (again) – can it continue?
9 July
Key points While we saw a long list of worries over the last year, 2025-26 saw another financial year of strong returns. Risks around Iran and oil, various other geopolitical issues, sticky inflation and possible further rate hikes and AI related...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Was life really better in the good old days?
9 July
Key points Angst about economic conditions has been running high in recent times. This is evident in chronically low consumer confidence readings and a downtrend in measures of happiness. It’s also arguably evident in the rise of populist...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Teflon share markets – 5 reasons they’re so resilient despite lots of worries
25 June
Key points Despite lots of threats over the last 18 months share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient. This likely reflects a combination of: President Trump’s desire for shares to rise; economic activity data right here right now has...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The RBA undertakes a hawkish pause – we continue to expect a further rise in rates
18 June
Key points After three consecutive rate hikes the RBA left rates on hold at 4.35% at its June meeting. However, the RBA retained a tightening bias noting that inflation Is “still too high” and is likely to remain so for some time and that it...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Are rate and tax hikes ending Australia’s housing boom?
4 June
Key points National average home prices were flat in May according to Cotality, the weakest since January last year. Prices fell further in Sydney and Melbourne, and the boom time cities of Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are seeing growth slow. The...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Three reasons why it pays to be an optimist as an investor
28 May
Key points The combination of the natural human tendency to focus on bad news, expectations rising beyond the ability of the economy to deliver, the increased availability of information & the rise of social media are likely...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Investment outlook Q&A – oil, bond yields, the Budget and the RBA
21 May
Key points The oil supply shock remains a significant threat to economic growth and shares – particularly with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and oil reserves running down. It’s contributing to rising bond yields and putting pressure...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The 2026-27 Budget – responsibility, productivity and fairness – or is it?
14 May
Key points The key changes are a wind back in negative gearing, the taxation of real capital gains, numerous moves to reduce regulation, and modest net budget cuts over five years. The projected deficits are now slightly lower over the budget...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA hikes again to control inflation – lessons learned from the 1970s
7 May
Key points The RBA hiked its cash rate for the third time this year by another 0.25% to 4.35% in response to inflation running above target and concerns that it will likely remain so for longer given price pressures partly flowing from the War...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – “Never waste a crisis” – The top five things needed in the coming Budget
23 April
Key points The upcoming Budget is an ideal opportunity to reframe government policy to put the economy onto a stronger path. The latest global crisis adds to the case for this. The five key things the Budget needs to do are: limit any...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Shares down on the oil shock – 5 key charts for investors to keep in mind
26 March
Key points The War with Iran has led to a surge in oil prices & worries of stagflation which has pushed share markets sharply lower. Predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA hikes again on the back of the boost to inflation from the Iran War
19 March
Key points The RBA hiked its cash rate for the second time this year by another 0.25% to 4.1% in response to inflation running above target and the War with Iran likely to boost it further. A further rate hike is highly possible, but the longer...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The impact of the US/Iran war on economies and markets – Q and A
12 March
Key points Uncertainty around the duration of the US/Israel war with Iran has intensified with oil prices spiking to $US119/barrel only to then plunge as President Trump hinted that the war may be close to over. This is in turn driving big...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Gulf War 3 – the threat to economies and markets from the US/Iran war
5 March
Key Points The start of a war between the US and Israel and Iran poses the risk of a significant disruption to global economic growth given the likelihood of significant disruption to the supply of oil, particularly through the Strait of...[Read More]